Assets to watch in 2015 (Economic Forecast 2015)

Economic Forecast 2015

2014 was indeed a year full of surprises whether economically, politically or even both at times! We all saw the struggle of the EUR, alongside the fall in the Eurozone's interest rates which nearly touched the absolute Zero. With Draghi having much to worry about, the idea of QE was being whispered by the US economy, for which it worked astonishingly well. Speaking of the economic giant, it had been doing more than great since the second quarter of last year as Fed's Chair Janet Yellen decided to stop the Quantitative Easing program. Moreover, Job rates in the world's largest economy have been very positive for some months. Meanwhile, Japan's not so secret weapon; The Abenomics, has not been very helpful to Japanese with the tax hike which has been a nightmare to the population.

However, despite all those above being important news, the world economy saw something much more interesting and devastating; OIL. Only by hearing this word, investors and companies shivers like leaves on the market, while consumers cheer up to this huge decline in the black gold.

Oil

This particular commodity proved to be a nightmare for investors and companies around the globe, but on the other hand, consumers were totally dreaming for this moment. Crude Oil fell to nearly $55 on the 31st of

December last year, making it the record lowest price since many years. Many brains and analysts have failed to come up to a specific conclusion for the end of the last quarter of 2014 and predicted that the black gold will eventually go up as the Sub Saharan countries pressured the OPEC due slash in revenues. However, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries held its ground and did not stop to stomp on oil prices.

Black Gold in 2015

The price of this commodity is not only determined by fundamentals nor demand and supply as most people would think. It is mostly determined by future expectations of investors around the globe. If their sentiment is up, the majority will tend to push the market up irrespective of the OPEC. However, if we dig in the past, we can see that oil prices did fell below the $40 levels and lingered at that price for several years from the 80's up till 1997.
Brent Crude for the second month of the year 2014 delivery fell below $45 a barrel for the first time since April 2009 and was trading at $44.51 a barrel. No need to say the fuss which was created amongst

various suppliers and oil producers or cartels. Furthermore, OPEC stood still and decided to hold its decision regarding oil price cut. Up till today, crude oil only found a slight increase of 5% since its fall, making forecasts quite impossible on this chart, while OPEC still lingers around and chops prices.

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates that worldwide oil inventories will keep on building in 2015, keeping descending weight on oil costs. The conjecture Brent raw petroleum value midpoints $58 barrel in 2015, $11/bbl lower than anticipated in a last month's STEO. In light of current business sector offsets, EIA anticipates that descending value weights will be moved in the first a large portion of 2015 when worldwide stock forms are required to be especially solid. EIA ventures that Brent costs will achieve a 2015 month to month normal low of $49/bbl in January and February, and afterward increment through the rest of the year to normal $67/bbl amid the final quarter.

With those figures, binary options trading for this commodity might be highly profitable on long term trades! Crude oil is now trading at the $47/bbl and assuming to charts, Oil might break the $50/bbl barrier sometime in April, but this might not be a sure thing as the OPEC stated that price will not be inched this quick. However, as analysts rightly stated, OPEC might have the power to control Oil prices, but in the end, Market forces always win over. This scenario might probably happen in June or the beginning of July, but by the end of the year, oil will have already pushed by a minimum of $12 per bbl.

Trading Tip of the Year: Crude Oil (Possibly Bearish)

USA

What to say about this particular currency besides that it can be considered to be the most powerful currency out there since Yellen pressed the stop button on the money making machine back in 2014, which instantly

boosted consumers sentiment up and spending spree was found all around the world's largest economy. The USD has been in a positively trending business since 2012: along these lines likelihood supports a continuation of this buyer market. The current solid uptrend hit long haul safety (past highs at somewhere around 88 and 89) and has begun to straighten up. The correction ought to proceed to somewhere around 85 and 87 preceding the USD endeavors an alternate break higher to focus on a break over 89/90. So regarding pattern the USD is at present

 

over -augmented (overbought) on the long-side and due a critical pattern redress. impact. The long haul level around which the USD wavers is 100, this is not only on the grounds that it is a decent round number however that is the level that the USD record began off without a moment's delay again 40 years prior, it is presently in excess of 14 years since the USD last exchanged at 100. Given the current long haul bull pattern design, it seems likely that the USD will sooner or later exchange on the opposite side of 100 once more, and given that the USD has been in a positively trending business sector since 2012 the likelihood of the USD exchanging at over 100 amid 2015 is significantly probably, indeed we would put it at a 65% likelihood before the end of 2015.

 

Moreover, it is known to everyone that the greenback has a negative correlation with crude oil. Well, since this commodity is falling fast and is extremely unpredictable. The dollar might ultimately rocket to the top, even though there is much resistance on charts where the buck is held as base currency.

Eurozone

ECB, Italy France, Greece... Each one of those economies and banks has been terribly miscalculating the pockets of the Euro bloc, assuming that money flow to cover debt countries will eventually lead to more money flow in the economy. Well well... ECB's boss Mario Draghi was a bit too confident on that one and this led to interest rates and inflation level touching incredibly low levels. With benchmark interest rates at 0.20%, the alarm bell went off and confronted ECB's President to serious decisions. Eurozone was in the worse economic situation known to Europeans since the starting up of the Euro bloc.

 

However, as its American counterpart was successful in its Quantitative measure, Draghi has now planned to start off a real arsenal against this possible deflation that threatens the Euro currency zone. The sentiment is an alternate turning point in a long-running debate between the ECB and Germany, the biggest part of the 19-nation alliance about the benefits of printing cash to support the battling Eurozone economy. The German Constitutional Court had eluded the OMT legitimateness inquiry to Europe's top court. opportunities in the long run. The need to give further jolt measures to the Eurozone was shown today by the World Bank report. Development during the current year is required to be

 

superior to a year ago mostly because of the financial profits of low oil costs and the fortifying US economy and also low investment rates, however the pace will be lower than had been suspected.

 

Image Sources:
www.investing.com
www.tradingview.com
Warren Tancredi By: Warren Tancredi
725 Views
1 Like